How to read an election market. Outcome share prices often resemble probabilities, but they are not a guarantee and can embed risk premiums or liquidity effects.
How to read an election market. Outcome share prices often resemble probabilities, but they are not a guarantee and can embed risk premiums or liquidity effects.
Election prediction markets can be highly liquid and reactive. Learn how pricing can shift and what influences market odds.
Why divergences happen. Markets can diverge from polling aggregates when large orders hit thin books, or when traders overweight specific narratives.
Election markets have attracted significant volume, and probabilities can change quickly after debates, polling updates, and major news.
A small number of large accounts can move prices when limits are loose. A price swing can reflect positioning, not certainty.
Prediction market odds sometimes diverge from polling models. Differences can come from trader beliefs, liquidity, and risk appetite.
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Use cases and cautions. These markets can be useful for tracking sentiment, but they are not a substitute for careful analysis of data and uncertainty.